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Corona Pandemic : Natural Selection April 1, 2020

Posted by bdoza in BANGLADESH.
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Corona deaths is rising. At this moment , according to Wordometer the corona cases in the world is 860,095 and  death is

42,344.  In Bangladesh the case no is 54 and death is 6. Bangladesh is the one of the lowest case reported and death recorded country.
On the contrary, USA is at the highest case reported 188,592 and death recorded 4055 , Italy case reported 105,792 and death recorded 12428 both the countries surpasses the case record of China of 81,554.
For Bangladesh bad days are coming ahead. Because of density of population, poor economic state, poor critical care service Bangladesh is at its wit’s end how to combat the storm. Different countries are observing lock down for 3 or more weeks., Bangladesh is also observing a sort of lock down for about 2 weeks. But Bangladesh will not be able to continue the lock down beyond 2 to 3 weeks. People will come out of their house because of daily bread earning. The chance of community transmission will be increased. Most of the people who came from abroad couldn’t be put into isolation or quarantine. That also compound the problem of community transmission. The Total ICU bed in Bangladesh may 500 to 600 only. Out of this 100 may be dedicated for corona care.

If  hundreds and thousands of people are affected by corona virus that Bangladesh has a possibility, what will happen to Bangladesh. The virus may be spread like wildfire. Limited hospital beds will be occupied and no ICU bed will be available for the critical patients. Natural Selection will take over the fate of Bangladesh people.  If 25% of the population may be affected- 4 crore of people. As the statistics go, 80% will be of mild form that is 3.2 crore . Out of remaining 20% , 15% will have moderate symptoms and 5 % will be severely affected. i,e  40 lacs. Out of this 5% , 2-3 % may require ventilator support – . So in total Bangladesh may require 25 lac ventilators, the no will never be possible to procure and will have to leave the patients to Natural Selection.

Natural Selection means the patients will have to overcome the onslaught of the disease by their immune system. Those patients who are  younger,  better immune status and have no co-morbidity  will survive.
Nature may even support Bangladesh in a different way-If high temperature and high humidity prevent the growth of the virus, the corona case may not that much increase in Bangladesh and we will be saved.
WHO says today that the pandemic is not yet over special for Asia.
An ordinary citizen

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